Lecture Outline for November 12
Some Characteristics of the Internet Economy
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very high valuation of certain stocks based
on the number of "eyeballs" they attract. This has led to a great
premium on free
services. NetZero offers free
Internet connections. Search engines are all free, and have expanded
their services to include email, news coverage, personalization. When.com
offers free calendar services. Now iwon.com
is offering free entry into a contest with $10,000 paid a day and $1,000,000
on tax day. Many publications are free, such as the NY Times. Slate,
Microsoft's magazine, was charging and went back to being free. Excite@Home
bought BlueMountain for up to a billion dollars, even though it has
almost no revenue. It is hard to see how these businesses will every make
a profit, leading to numerous predictions that the "Internet bubble" is
going to burst.But so far the bubble has not burst, and some people are
making a lot of money.
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"rags to riches" stories, best known that of
Sabeer Bhatia who arrived penniless from India on Sept
ember
23, 1988, and sold Hotmail to Microsoft on New Year's Eve, 1997 for $400,000,000.
This was based on its lead in signing up subscribers to a service which
seems obvious after the fact.
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Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos, another "rags-to-riches"
story. Idea was simple; marketing books.
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culture of entrepreneurship and innovation.
Venture Capital, business plans and IPO's are critical mechanisms.
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emphasis on youth culture, seeming disorder,
"nerd" culture - From The Nudist on the Late Shift, p. xxvii:
"it is wildly chaotic. It tears itself down continuously.
It teeters on the brink of self-destruction. But it is a chaos unlike
any other chaos. It is a smoothly working chaos. It is the
chaos of hard effort, rather than the chaos of need gratification."
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large number of start-ups and small companies,
plus a few big ones.
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question of Microsoft "monopoly" is more of
the PC software business than the Internet - the Internet is seen as a
threat to Microsoft's dominance. Does Microsoft provide a needed
stability, hierarchy to balance the heterarchy of the entrepreneurial economy?
Jim Clark's story is an example.
Some questions to keep in mind as you read the story.
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how could Clark's profession be categorized?
No good word for it, entrepreneur, businessman, trendsetter???
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what personality traits led to his success?
Do these differ from the personality traits which led to success in other
epochs? E.g., in Benjamin Franklin's? The Robber Baron era?
The Organization Man era? Restlessness, impulsiveness? Uncomfortable
in ordinary corporate job.
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what was the fundamental idea behind Silicon
Graphics? Geometry engine - real time 3D graphics
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what was the fundamental idea behind Netscape?
commercializing a graphic web browser
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what was the fundamental idea behind Healtheon?
connecting doctors, patients and insurance companies, handling paperwork
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why did Healtheon need a new "metric of success"?
What was it? number of doctors enrolled
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what idea did Clark have that did NOT take off?
Why not? interactive TV - technology was not there, packet switching
doesn't do it, even with cable let alone with telephone modems
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can you think of another idea like these that
could make someone like Clark a billionaire? Webmind Applications?
The Economist gives us an overview of the Internet's
economic impact today. Some questions:
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why is the Internet both "overhyped" and "undervalued"?
It
doesn't change everything, not everyone is on it, but it will have very
important impacts. Often the best known sites are not really the
most important.
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how is the Internet being used in business to
customer interactions? How much impact is this having? Buy
directly on the WEB. Margins are low, problems with shipping and
order fulfillment. Difficulty of paying. Loss of enjoyment
of shopping. BUT very convenient. Amazon one-click; Land's
end. Very big impact on financial services - stock trading.
Created the whole hobby of "day trading."
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how is the Internet being used in business to
business interactions? How much impact is this having? Bigger
impact here, but less visible. Makes purchasing and operations mroe
efficient. Cuts transaction costs need for intermediaries, unless
they offer additional services.
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how much are the leaders of business resisting
the Internet revolution? Not at all
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what is meant by "network effects"? How
important are they? If everybody else has something, you must
too. E.g., qwerty keyboard; Microsoft software.
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how is the National Transportation Exchange
(NTE) using the Internet? What effects does this case illustrate?
More efficient allocation of trucking resources, using empty space
on return trips. It is an example of an xchange, creating liquidity in
otherwise fragmented markets
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what does the Adauction.com. case illustrate?
more
efficient sales of advertising space; it is an online auctioneer
which offers a reliable channel to sell or buy perishable or time valued
commodities
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what does the Chemdex Corporation case illustrate?
one
stop shopping for pharmaceuticals it is an aggregator: it helps buyers
in fragmented markets select products by providing up-to-the minute price
and product information and a single contact point for service
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what does Forrester Research predict about the
future of the Internet in business? Has it already reached its peak?
It will continue to grow, various services will consolidate, major
corportions will move in in a long way
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what is Walmart doing on the Internet? Not
much so far; they have good purchasing capacities. How would
it contrast with amazon.com? Amazon is becoming more Walmart-like.
One click shopping, efficient order fulfillment.
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How about IBM? How important is the Internet
to its operations? Not an "internet company" but a big percentage
of their business is involved with the internet.
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how has the Internet effected power relationships
between buyers and sellers? Has given power to buyers, easier
to compare, more options.
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how has the Internet impacted on transaction
costs? Cuts them
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what kinds of new business opportunities has
the Internet created? What are "infomediaries"? Companies which
specialize in the three functions discussed above: exchange, allocation
and auctioning.
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in the Economist's view, is e-business the biggest
thing since the industrial revolution, or is the Internet just another
useful tool for speeding up business communications? It is bigger than
the telephone, but not quite an industrial revolution yet.
How does one get into the Internet revolution?
The key: a Business
Plan - indeed
some cynics suggest that writing a plan is more important than implementing
one. One columnist suggests that the
Internet economy is a form of Ponzi game.
You begin with a short,
two or three page, strategic plan. Then you go on to develop a comprehensive
business plan. There are lots of books on how to do this, or you
can
get some help online.
The key to a business
plan, of course, is the idea it proposes. What you need is a Killer
AP!
It is not so much
a matter of new technology or a new scientific innovation, but a new marketable
product no one anticipated.
For a creative project over the break, our
support groups will work on developing a strategic
plan to market electronic
paper.