One was a short article in
the back pages of
The Times that reported
that the number of
adults using the Internet
in the U.S. had
surpassed 100 million, meaning
that roughly
half the U.S. population
is now online.
The other article, in The
Post, noted that
Amazon.com was shipping
an extraordinary
number of copies of Adolf
Hitler's racist
manifesto, "Mein Kampf,"
to buyers in Germany.
It is illegal to sell "Mein
Kampf" in bookstores
in Germany or publish it
there. But as we move
from the world of Borders
books to the world
of borderless books, a k
a Amazon.com,
Germans can order "Mein
Kampf" online and
have it delivered by mail,
and their government
is powerless to stop it.
Indeed, Amazon
shipped so many copies of
"Mein Kampf" to
Germany that over the summer
Hitler made
Amazon's top 10 best-seller
list among German
buyers.
What these two little stories
tell is that 10
years after the fall of
the Berlin Wall a whole
other set of walls is starting
to fall, as we
move deeper into the Internet
revolution. And
this is not simply an American
phenomenon,
nor, as the "Mein Kampf"
example illustrates,
will it automatically bring
out the best in people.
So what comes next? With
the first phase of
this wall-destroying Internet
revolution -- the
e-mail and e-commerce phase
-- now fully under
way, I posed that question
to John Chambers.
Mr. Chambers runs Cisco
Systems, which
makes the routers that run
the Internet.
Beware: He has an obvious
stake in touting the
Internet. But note: His
past predictions have
proved extremely accurate.
Mr. Chambers argued that
the second phase of
the Internet revolution
-- businesses absorbing
the Internet and using it
to relate to one
another -- was now just
taking off, and that
this was going to be a monster
market. There
is barely a C.E.O. in the
developed world who in
the last six months hasn't
said to himself: "Oh
my God! This Internet thing
is real. Somebody
call me an Internet doctor
and wire me up."
Once a C.E.O. understands
that absorbing the
Net into every aspect of
his or her business
"is the only way they are
going to survive," said
Mr. Chambers, "they are
going to be spending
big bucks on it. That's
why I believe that Y2K
will be short-lived, and
after that we are going
to see one of the best years
the computer
industry has ever seen."
So now that commerce has
moved to the Net,
and the Net is moving into
business, what
comes after that?
"Education," said Mr. Chambers.
"The next big
killer application for the
Internet is going to
be education. Education
over the Internet is
going to be so big it is
going to make e-mail
usage look like a rounding
error" in terms of
the Internet capacity it
will consume.
What will drive it will be
the demands on
companies, in an intensely
competitive global
economy, to keep improving
productivity.
E-learning, insists Mr.
Chambers, if done right,
can provide faster learning,
at lower costs,
with more accountability,
thereby enabling
both companies and schools
to keep up with
changes in the global economy
that now occur
at Net speed. Schools and
countries that
ignore this, he says, will
suffer the same fate
as big department stores
that thought
e-commerce was overrated.
If universities move properly,
they will offer
the ideal combination of
online and
instructor-led learning,
argues Mr. Chambers.
But if universities don't
reinvent their
curriculums and how they
deliver them, for an
increasingly Net-driven
economy, many
students, particularly in
information technology
fields, "will go to schools
online," he says. Many
big firms -- Cisco, G.E.,
I.B.M., AT&T -- are
starting online academies
to train new
employees and to constantly
upgrade the skills
of existing ones.
"Unlike in the industrial
revolution when you
had to be in the right country
or city to
participate, in this new
era capital will flow to
whichever countries and
companies install the
best Internet and educational
capabilities,"
says Mr. Chambers. Governments
and unions
will be powerless to stop
this capital flow,
which will affect the global
balance of
economic power. Although
the technology
exists today, this revolution
will take about 10
years to be fully in place.
But, insists Mr.
Chambers, "it's coming next."