Trend Analysis Using Microcase Historical Trends Module


1.   Open Microcase on one of the computers in our classroom or go to the computer center and open Microcase Curriculum Plan 2004-2005.  It should be in the "Statistics" folder on the Windows Desktop, or in the "New Things" folder (which has some newer data sets).  If you prefer, you may install this software at home.   It is available as an "assignment" on our WEBCT.  The password information you need is also listed with the assignment.

2.   Open the USTrend.mc4 data set which you can find by clicking on "archive" then "trend" then "US".  (Do not use the  TrendSmp.mc4 data set that is in the root directory, it has too few variables)

3.    Open the "Basic Statistics" and the "Historical Trends" program.  Chose two variables related to the topic of mass communication.  Available variables include those involving media such as television, radio, magazines, newspapers.  You might also use variables about freedom of speech for different groups.

4.     Plot the trend graphs and examine the trends in your two variables, using your knowledge of history, prompted by the Historical Events at the bottom of the screen, to explain the trend.

5.     Open Microcost Word or another full featured word processor and type the Title of your report on the top of the page, centering it.  Type your name below it. 

6.     Type an introductory paragraph explaining the question you are investigating, e.g, "how can we explain trends in traffic deaths since the 1920s."

7.      Copy the historical trend graph for your variables  from Microcase into your Word file.

8.      Type another paragraph giving your analysis of the trends in your variables.

10.    Write a paragraph describing the trends in your variables

11.       Save your results in Word (*.doc) or rich text format (*.rtf).  Please use a one word file name with no spaces, WEBCT doesn't like spaces.   Submit it to the WEBCT dropbox by the deadline. 

For a sample paper, see Trends in Homicide Rates by my teaching assistant Fulano de Tal.  This, however, does not deal with a communications topic as you should for this course.