Trend Analysis Using Microcase Historical Trends Module

Note:  If you are doing this assignment for two of my classes, you must do a different paper with different variables for each.

1.   Go to the computer center and open Microcase Curriculum Plan 2004-2005.  It should be in the "Statistics" folder on the Windows Desktop.  If you prefer, you may install this software at home.  It is available in the Software and Readings folder in our course WEBCT.  Download the "Installing Microcase" file first for instructions. 

2.   Open the USTrend.mc4 data set which you can find by clicking on "archive" then "trend" then "US".  (You can also do this with the TrendSmp.mc4 data set that is in the root directory, but it does not have as many variables.)

3.    Open the "Basic Statistics" and the "Historical Trends" program.  Chose two variables other than homicide.  One should be the dependent variable you wish to explain.  The other should be an independent  variable you think might help to explain tends in the first variable.

4.     Examine the trends in your dependent variable, and use your knowledge of history, prompted by the Historical Events at the bottom of the screen, to explain the trend.

5.     Open Microcost Word or another full featured word processor and type the Title of your report on the top of the page, centering it.  Type your name below it. 

6.     Type an introductory paragraph explaining the question you are investigating, e.g, "how can we explain trends in traffic deaths since the 1920s."

7.      Copy the historical trend graph for your dependent from Microcase into your Word file.

8.      Type another paragraph giving your analysis of the trends in your dependent variable.

9.      Copy the historical trend graph for your independent variable from Microcase into your Word file.

10.    Write a paragraph describing the trends in this variable and commenting on how they help (or do not help) to understand the trends in your dependent variable.

11.       Save your results in Word (*.doc) or rich text format (*.rtf).  Please use a one word file name with no spaces, WEBCT doesn't like spaces.   Submit it to the WEBCT dropbox by the deadline. 

For a sample paper, see Trends in Homicide Rates by my teaching assistant Fulano de Tal.